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We cannot know that it will, as we cannot know anything for sure. To say that we know that the tree will make noise (or sound) indicates that we know there can't be an exception. Just because a tree has made sound every time anyone has ever heard it fall doesn't mean it has to the next time.
It depends on how we define sound. If we define it as "the sensation produced by stimulation of the organs of hearing by vibrations transmitted through the air or other medium", then we can know that it doesn't make noise (as noise is sound).
The most concrete way of knowing anything so far has been the scientific method. Scientifically, we have directly observed an overwhelming amount of instances where trees have made a noise after they fell. In fact, we have no recorded instances of a tree making no noise (all conditions being equal).
Sounds are vibrations in the gas around the source of noise, so yes, when the tree falls it sure does make noise.
Sound is a phenomennon which occurs without the need of someone to hear it. If sound didn't exist before living beings could hear it, then how did they develop organs to perceive something that doesn't exist?
You could install a microphone in the woods and check the recording